No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012

Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• _W_ estimated 75% on 2012-01-09
• gwern estimated 35% and said “military is currently saying they’ll hand over power in july http://www.albawaba.com/editorchoice/egyptian-elections-enlightener-special-408009” on 2012-01-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 41% on 2012-01-09
• Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-01-10
• modulus estimated 60% and said “Still time for another election, but it seems unlikely.” on 2012-06-15
• Leo said “What counts as “holding power”? Duration, abilities, accomplishments?” on 2012-06-16
• gwern said “Morsi was elected and is holding power, so marking this wrong.” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.