There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US.

Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• ChristianKl estimated 50% on 2009-10-15
• UnholySmoke   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-15.
• freyley   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-15.
• freyley estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
• im estimated 20% on 2009-10-15
• Jack estimated 30% on 2009-10-16
• othercriteria estimated 15% on 2009-10-16
• anonym   judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 12% on 2009-10-17
• refragable estimated 25% on 2009-10-28
• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-19
• Qiaochu estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
• gwern said “nope. all third-party candidates combined took like, maybe 2 or 3% in their biggest states IIRC” on 2012-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.