GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-01-09
• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-01-10
• Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-01.