GJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel?

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-01-09
• gwern said “if there’s any withdrawal, it’ll be after an islamist party gets in power; the military will still be in power in april, and they are very happy with there being a peace treaty – they wouldn’t want to actually have to fight!” on 2012-01-09
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.