GJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-01-09
• gwern said “http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M approached $140 but not $150 – GJP says this is in effect a bet on Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz” on 2012-01-09
• gwern said “GJP also notes this is for any day, not just 2 April 2012 – if the daily price is ever $150 or above, this is judged right” on 2012-01-09
• jeanschindler estimated 15% on 2012-01-24
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-04.