Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year

Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.

• modulus estimated 70% on 2012-01-10
• RobertLumley estimated 85% on 2012-01-10
• gwern said “war by 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4711 airstrike by 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1699 airstrike by Dec 2012: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3160” on 2012-01-10
• Isaac said “Define “attacked.” There was an assassination today. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/01/201211162848691713.html” on 2012-01-12
• Anubhav estimated 80% and said “I’d say ‘attacked’ refers to military actions, and possibly sabotage a la stuxnet. ” on 2012-01-12
• modulus said “By attack I mean military operations: air raids, bombings, shelling from ships, invasion with ground troops, use of cruise or ballistic missiles, tactical or strategic nuclear weapons.” on 2012-01-13
• faws estimated 84% on 2012-01-13
• modulus said “Since it was apparently unclear by bombing I don’t mean any use of bombs, like a car bomb, or other terrorist or subversive techniques, but aerial bombing from aircraft.” on 2012-01-13
• siscoking estimated 99% and said “they supply South Africa with oil nobody wants to see a oil shortage there.” on 2012-01-18
• Grognor estimated 70% on 2012-01-23
• RandomThinker estimated 80% on 2012-04-02
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% and said “Ahmadinejad is not going away anytime soon, he will need to be dealth with.” on 2012-04-05
• chemotaxis101 estimated 90% on 2012-07-01
• D_Malik estimated 97% on 2012-12-17
• modulus   judged this prediction right on 2013-01-01.