Solar flare to harm life on Earth

Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

• kish estimated 100% on 2012-01-10
• lavalamp estimated 45% and said ““harm” is extremely vague.” on 2012-01-20
• JoshuaZ said “Can’t estimate without a more well-defined notion of harm. ” on 2012-01-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.