Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012.

Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.

• smijer estimated 98% on 2012-01-11
• RobertLumley estimated 97% on 2012-01-11
• gwern estimated 91% and said “before 2013: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3247 before 2014: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1794” on 2012-01-11
• JoshuaZ estimated 88% on 2012-01-11
• Isaac estimated 95% on 2012-01-12
• spqr0a1 estimated 95% on 2012-01-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2012-01-18
• Serge estimated 80% on 2012-01-25
• Qiaochu estimated 99% on 2012-11-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2012-11-22
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-31.