PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

I will drop out of college.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.

  • Anubhav estimated 2% on 2012-01-13
  • faws estimated 15% and said “IIRC average dropout rate is something like 50%? ” on 2012-01-13
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “maybe, but that’d be over all students, inclding the ones who should never have been there in the first place” on 2012-01-13
  • JoshuaZ estimated 11% on 2012-01-13
  • Anubhav said “The numbers are very hard to come by. See http://bit.ly/ozh3M2 about the (then) latest estimates of the %age in college, and note that Wikipedia’s estimate http://bit.ly/5bmWWY of the %age graduating from school is lower than that. ” on 2012-01-14
  • Anubhav said “Wikipedia’s numbers are from a later time (2008 vs 2003) but I doubt the graduation rates have dropped over time.” on 2012-01-14
  • Anubhav said “Only source I could find with both the enrolment & completion data: http://bit.ly/n4IHrs (links to the original data set) enrolment: 5.8%, completion 3.1%. That makes the dropout rate 47% approx. ” on 2012-01-14
  • Anubhav said “Only source I could find with some quick googling*” on 2012-01-14
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said “The mere fact that you are a PredictionBook user pushes you away from the base rate quite a bit.” on 2012-01-22
  • Anubhav said “IMO P(learned enough of something to make steady money off oDesk | dropped out) ≈ 1. Everybody seems to be looking at this as P(couldn’t keep up with academics | dropped out) > 0.8, but that’s close to 0 (near the top of my class)” on 2012-01-22
  • faws said “P(didn’t keep up with academics) >> P(wasn’t intellectually capable of keeping up with academics)” on 2012-01-22
  • Anubhav said “^ Right, didn’t think of that one.” on 2012-01-23
  • Anubhav estimated 10% and said “2% was probably underconfident. Making money shouldn’t be THAT difficult. ” on 2012-01-23
  • Jayson Virissimo said “I figured you understood the huge signalling value of graduating, so you wouldn’t quit, not that you would fail at school.” on 2012-01-25
  • fela estimated 16% on 2014-01-04
  • Anubhav estimated 0% and said “Not going to happen unless vampires take over my college or something.” on 2014-01-05
  • Snowshi estimated 10% on 2014-01-20
  • Rowan93 estimated 2% on 2014-01-24
  • reubensandwich estimated 1% on 2014-03-20
  • Anubhav   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-03-31.