The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012.

Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.

• waveman estimated 25% on 2012-01-13
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “There’s an implicit conjunction here, needing to be both real and accepted as such. That seems unlikely. ” on 2012-01-13
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2012-01-13
• gwern estimated 1% and said “cold fusion = good way to lose money so far” on 2012-01-14
• waveman changed their prediction from “The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. Ie something like the Rossi energy sources will turn out to be real. [It looks like it will be some form of beta decay following electron capture in certain s” on 2012-01-14
• faws estimated 1% on 2012-01-15
• spqr0a1 estimated 1% on 2012-01-17
• lavalamp estimated 1% on 2012-01-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-01-25
• Serge estimated 4% on 2012-01-25
• endoself estimated 0% on 2012-01-27
• Qiaochu estimated 0% on 2012-11-10
• ygert estimated 0% on 2012-12-16
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• waveman said “Well it did not happen. So my estimate of 25% was accurate to the exent I was saying it was unlikely.” on 2012-12-31
• waveman   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-31.
• Qiaochu   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• Qiaochu said “@waveman: that is not what “right” and “wrong” mean here. “Right” and “wrong” refer to the prediction itself and not to your assessment of its likelihood. ” on 2012-12-31