“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “let’s operationalize as >50% of airplanes are fueled by hydrocarbons (however it is synthesized or extracted) http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• spqr0a1 estimated 60% on 2012-01-17
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2018-12-19
• amadeu estimated 70% on 2019-04-07