Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said ““There will be a prototype under construction, with a turbine hall that will deliver base load to someone’s grid (probably France’s), when it’s running. Which won’t be most of the time,” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “ because it’ll be a prototype and a hangar queen." http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• spqr0a1 estimated 30% on 2012-01-17
• simplicio estimated 55% on 2013-02-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 60% on 2018-12-19