“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said ““we’ll have circuitry where the feature resolution is on the order of one or two atoms. Can’t make it smaller. Can stack it vertically. ” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “A 2032 smartphone (and literally everyone will have a smartphone, or its successor) will compare in power to a 2012 iPhone 4S" http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-01-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2012-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 72% and said “kurzweil’s law of accelerating returns will continue giving though.” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 70% on 2018-12-19