“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01

• gwern estimated 45% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html – HP and Nokia do look like goners, but where are the other 3 coming from?” on 2012-01-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 61% and said “Nokia’s gone. HP/IBM losing grip. MS lost monopoly status. FB not being used by the kids.” on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 40% and said “At 2050, 50%” on 2018-12-19
• n99 estimated 25% on 2022-10-28