Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01

• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said ““This means that the attack surface we expose to zoonoses will be maximized; anything that exists and can infect and eat us will do so. One or more plagues as lethal as SARS will get loose and kill between 1M and 1B people.”” on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “ http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• spqr0a1 estimated 38% on 2012-01-17
• lavalamp estimated 45% and said “Seems quite unlikely but that’s a long time period.” on 2012-01-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2012-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 58% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 45% on 2018-12-19