A human neural connectome will have been mapped by 2092 —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01

• gwern estimated 90% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said ““We’ll also have had time to map out the human neural connectome, even allowing for it to be harder than is currently apparent.” http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• Porejide estimated 99% and said “at the synapse level (>99.99% confidence in each call, >99.9% of possible synapses called) in at least three individuals” on 2012-01-16
• Porejide said “publicly available, otherwise it can’t be verified” on 2012-01-16
• Anubhav estimated 85% and said “Non-negligible probability of apocalypse.” on 2012-01-16
• lavalamp estimated 97% and said “(conditioned on no apocalypse— in that case no one would be around to mark it as wrong)” on 2012-01-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 100% on 2016-10-09
• themusicgod1 estimated 97% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 85% on 2018-12-19