“computing systems powerful enough to manage a synapse-level simulation of a human brain in real time and then some” by 2092 —Charles Stross

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01

• gwern estimated 90% on 2012-01-14
• gwern said “http://www.antipope.org/charlie/blog-static/2012/01/world-building-301-some-projec.html” on 2012-01-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 66% on 2018-12-19