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Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.

  • Grognor estimated 78% on 2012-01-14
  • gwern estimated 70% on 2012-01-15
  • spqr0a1 estimated 80% on 2012-01-17
  • Grognor said “They’ve been around since 2005. I think I was underconfident.on 2012-08-24
  • fela estimated 81% on 2014-01-04
  • fela estimated 99% on 2014-01-04
  • Grognor   judged this prediction right on 2014-01-15.