Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15

Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• siscoking estimated 50% on 2012-01-15
• gwern estimated 60% and said “so you’re 99% confident it will be >$10, but 50% confident it will be <$15 eh…” on 2012-01-15
• siscoking said “yes what is wrong with this? I am pretty sure it will be over US$ 10 but not so sure it will be more than US$ 15.” on 2012-01-16
• lavalamp estimated 42% on 2012-01-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.