SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-01-21
• muflax estimated 20% and said “might get a bit tricky if they split / rename themselves etc., but The FAI Charity Formally Known As SIAI shouldn’t undergo too much factionalization” on 2012-01-21
• Grognor estimated 2% on 2012-01-21
• gwern estimated 15% and said “I don’t think charities relocate very often, and England is taken by FHI. so this is more a bet of shutting down” on 2012-01-21
• Leo estimated 10% on 2012-01-27
• Nic_Smith estimated 8% on 2012-01-28
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2012-07-01
• Tuxedage estimated 13% on 2013-01-03
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-14
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-15
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2018-12-15
• Baeboo estimated 1% on 2020-11-20
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.