HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.

• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-01-21
• Anubhav said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7jd/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/50ib” on 2012-01-21
• gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-21
• HonoreDB estimated 40% on 2012-01-21
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-01-25
• lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-03-26
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa.” on 2012-04-08
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 65% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 5% on 2012-04-20
• Sarokrae estimated 15% on 2012-04-29
• 75th estimated 1% and said “I think there’s a significant chance that Dumbledore was involved in the attack, but not that he cast the spell that did it.” on 2013-07-13
• 75th estimated 10% and said “Revising slightly upward vis-à-vis http://lesswrong.com/lw/huq/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9dek . I think Dumbledore would believe he as-good-as-killed Narcissa even by helping Amelia do the deed, but that’s a bit complicated.” on 2013-07-16
• 75th   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-12.