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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-01-21
  • Anubhav said “ 2012-01-21
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “best lies are the truthon 2012-01-21
  • HonoreDB estimated 59% on 2012-01-21
  • Anubhav said “gwern… so that’s 50% probability to him killing her, and 65% probability to a subset of him not killing her?on 2012-01-22
  • vi estimated 70% on 2012-01-22
  • gwern said “this is more a question of is Lucius telling the truth. good liars minimize the lies they must tell, and they don’t make bold lies which one would want to check – and lucius is a very good liaron 2012-01-22
  • Anubhav said “I have no idea how you’re reading these…. The predictions are about Dumbledore killing her, not Lucius telling the truth about him killing her. on 2012-01-23
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, I believe that gwern is referencing the fact that Draco probably heard about how Narcissa died from Lucius. on 2012-01-23
  • Anubhav said “How on earth is that even relevant to what I was saying? The only way for the sum of this probability and this one to exceed 100% is if there are scenarios in which he both killed and didn’t kill her.on 2012-01-23
  • Anubhav said “(which there probably are, but it doesn’t look like that’s what gwern’s thinking of)on 2012-01-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-01-25
  • lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-03-26
  • Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.” on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “It seems pretty clear that Dumbledore has claimed or at least implied (which I count) that he did, so this is pretty much just my estimate for him not killing her.on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 75% on 2012-04-29
  • 75th said “Not registering a percentage on this one because I think it’s likely to be ambiguous. If Dumbledore used weasel words specifically to lead Lucius to this belief, but didn’t lie outright, does that count as claiming he did?on 2013-07-17
  • JayDee estimated 50% on 2013-08-21
  • player_03 estimated 46% and said “Weasel words would be dangerous given his stated motives. I’d put a 90% chance on him claiming that he did, and less than a 2% chance on killing her and not claiming it.on 2014-04-26
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-26.
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-03-26.
  • Oscar_Cunningham said “Actually, we don’t know what Dumbledore claimed to have done, right?on 2015-03-26
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.

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