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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.

  • Anubhav estimated 50% on 2012-01-21
  • Anubhav said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7jd/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/50tt” on 2012-01-21
  • gwern estimated 65% and said “best lies are the truth” on 2012-01-21
  • HonoreDB estimated 59% on 2012-01-21
  • Anubhav said “gwern… so that’s 50% probability to him killing her, and 65% probability to a subset of him not killing her?” on 2012-01-22
  • vi estimated 70% on 2012-01-22
  • gwern said “this is more a question of is Lucius telling the truth. good liars minimize the lies they must tell, and they don’t make bold lies which one would want to check – and lucius is a very good liar” on 2012-01-22
  • Anubhav said “I have no idea how you’re reading these…. The predictions are about Dumbledore killing her, not Lucius telling the truth about him killing her. ” on 2012-01-23
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, I believe that gwern is referencing the fact that Draco probably heard about how Narcissa died from Lucius. ” on 2012-01-23
  • Anubhav said “How on earth is that even relevant to what I was saying? The only way for the sum of this probability and this one http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5417 to exceed 100% is if there are scenarios in which he both killed and didn’t kill her.” on 2012-01-23
  • Anubhav said “(which there probably are, but it doesn’t look like that’s what gwern’s thinking of)” on 2012-01-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% on 2012-01-25
  • lavalamp estimated 45% on 2012-03-26
  • Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did.” on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 30% and said “It seems pretty clear that Dumbledore has claimed or at least implied (which I count) that he did, so this is pretty much just my estimate for him not killing her.” on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 50% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 75% on 2012-04-29
  • 75th said “Not registering a percentage on this one because I think it’s likely to be ambiguous. If Dumbledore used weasel words specifically to lead Lucius to this belief, but didn’t lie outright, does that count as claiming he did?” on 2013-07-17
  • JayDee estimated 50% on 2013-08-21
  • player_03 estimated 46% and said “Weasel words would be dangerous given his stated motives. I’d put a 90% chance on him claiming that he did, and less than a 2% chance on killing her and not claiming it.” on 2014-04-26
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction right on 2015-03-26.
  • Oscar_Cunningham   judged this prediction unknown on 2015-03-26.
  • Oscar_Cunningham said “Actually, we don’t know what Dumbledore claimed to have done, right?” on 2015-03-26
  • PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction right on 2016-01-01.