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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.

Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.

  • gwern estimated 25% on 2012-01-21
  • gwern on 2012-01-21
  • gwern said “see http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/WMG/HarryPotterAndTheMethodsOfRationality for the argumentson 2012-01-21
  • drethelin estimated 1% and said “conflicts with word of godon 2012-01-21
  • Grognor estimated 4% on 2012-01-21
  • gwern said “drethelin: which word of god? I don’t remember anything bearing on the issueon 2012-01-22
  • Anubhav estimated 1% and said “Ur jnf fhccbfrq gb or Ibyqrzbeg, evtug? Although Eliezer could’ve changed his mind, but I doubt that happened.on 2012-01-22
  • HonoreDB estimated 2% on 2012-01-22
  • ahartell estimated 10% and said “I would find this super cool and elegant, but it doesn’t seem super likely.on 2012-02-03
  • lavalamp estimated 5% on 2012-03-26
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.” on 2012-04-09
  • gwern estimated 7% and said “updating on latest chapterson 2012-04-09
  • gwern changed their prediction from “HP MOR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk.” on 2012-04-09
  • PlacidPlatypus estimated 2% on 2012-04-19
  • Oscar_Cunningham estimated 1% on 2012-04-20
  • Sarokrae estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
  • dhoe estimated 1% on 2013-02-03
  • DEA7TH estimated 1% and said “Quirrell is possibly as strong as Salazar, if not stronger. on 2014-02-28
  • HonoreDB   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-14.