GJP: #1065 Will there be a significant* lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea between 23 January 2012 and 31 December 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.

• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-01-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-01.