GJP: #1063 Will the Taliban begin official* in-person negotiations with either the US or Afghan government by 1 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• gwern estimated 25% on 2012-01-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.