France's Sarkozy to run for presidency.

Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.

• Laurent Bossavit estimated 99% on 2012-01-24
• Laurent Bossavit said “There’s a silly rumor going around here that he won’t.” on 2012-01-24
• Leo estimated 100% and said “Too little time to develop a severe medical problem; no political reason not to.” on 2012-01-25
• endoself estimated 99% on 2012-01-27
• PseudonymousUser estimated 96% on 2012-01-28
• chemotaxis101 estimated 98% on 2012-01-30
• faws estimated 99% on 2012-01-30
• Laurent Bossavit estimated 95% and said “The “political reason not to” is simply that he might not win: he’s doing badly in the polls. This has gone beyond rumor to a scenario voiced in mainstream media (though labeled unlikely).” on 2012-02-04
• gwern said “and elected: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3246” on 2012-02-15
• gwern estimated 85% and said “volatile guy” on 2012-02-15
• Laurent Bossavit   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-15.
• Laurent Bossavit said “Formal announcement will be made on TV tonight, and has been abundantly leaked to the press” on 2012-02-15