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HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster

Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.

  • gwern estimated 50% on 2012-01-24
  • gwern said “cf. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5484on 2012-01-24
  • Leo estimated 25% on 2012-01-27
  • gwern changed their prediction from “<4 >2 page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster” on 2012-01-27
  • kallman estimated 10% and said “Less than 4? Hasn’t he confirmed to have four waiting to be posted when he’s ready of at least that length already?on 2012-02-04
  • gwern said “prelude and first 3 parts of taboo tradeoffs falsify this prediction – that’s 4 2+ page chapters. marking wrong.on 2012-04-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-04.
  • gwern changed their prediction from “<4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster” on 2012-04-09