Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year.

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.

• InTrade estimated 50% on 2009-10-16
• JamesMiller estimated 79% on 2009-10-16
• Arenamontanus estimated 60% on 2009-10-16
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 50% on 2009-10-17
• faws estimated 50% on 2009-10-22
• gwern estimated 5% and said “http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/13/movies/13polanski.html” on 2010-07-29
• gwern said “swiss released him, no changes: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Polanski_sexual_abuse_case#Legal_actions marking wrong” on 2011-01-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-01-01.