Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010.

Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.

• InTrade estimated 89% on 2009-10-16
• othercriteria estimated 70% on 2009-10-16
• ChristianKl estimated 90% on 2009-10-16
• prase estimated 94% on 2009-10-16
• Arenamontanus estimated 70% on 2009-10-16
• anonym   judged this prediction right on 2009-10-17.
• anonym   judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-17.
• anonym estimated 60% on 2009-10-17
• dshiller estimated 78% on 2009-10-20
• faws estimated 90% on 2009-10-22
• drewyallop estimated 75% on 2009-12-06
• ozymandias estimated 90% on 2010-06-20
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2010-07-29.