Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.

• JoshuaZ estimated 20% on 2012-01-26
• RobertLumley said “Could you start making predictions like this that the rest of us can’t possibly estimate private?” on 2012-01-26
• Anubhav said “If that turned into site policy, gwern would have to privatise ~90% of his predictions. Just saying.” on 2012-01-26
• Anubhav said “I’m guessing your real problem is with the newsfeed on the main page. (Too easy to flood, no way to see older stories.)” on 2012-01-26
• RobertLumley said “Yes, Anubhav, it is. And this obviously isn’t the only one that’s like this (I think you probably have some to, but I’m not sure) but there’s been some discussion of trying to make it private.” on 2012-01-26
• gwern estimated 25% and said “anubhav: my ratio isn’t quite that bad.” on 2012-01-26
• RobertLumley said “Gwern’s aren’t quite as bad, since I can just see: Night 6, and immediately ignore them. Joshua’s I have to read the entire prediction before I realize it’s a private matter.” on 2012-01-26
• Anubhav said “How about beginning such predictions with [meh] ?” on 2012-01-26
• JoshuaZ said “How about personal predictions start with [personal]? That’s a bit more self-explanatory than [meh]? ” on 2012-01-26
• RobertLumley said “Either would be fine to me, but I don’t see why you wouldn’t just keep the prediction private if you’d take the time to type [personal].” on 2012-01-27
• Leo said “It’s common to want others’ estimates on personal matters! E.g. the one prediction I posted, Jayson’s “will reach [goal]” ones.” on 2012-01-27
• Anubhav said “[personal] takes longer to type. How about [pers]? But really, this doesn’t solve the problem that putting it up HIDES older predictions people might be more interested in.” on 2012-01-27
• ahartell said “Also, sometimes making them public increasing the amount to which you’ll want to fulfill the prediction, e.g., “I will go start exercising”.” on 2012-01-27
• JoshuaZ said “Hmm, this is the sort of thing which we could solve a bit if we had formal categorization of predictions. Or even if one could just scroll back indefinitely the predictions that had been made rather than just the last few. ” on 2012-01-27
• RobertLumley said “Categorization is definitely best. But we don’t have that now. :-/” on 2012-01-27
• Grognor said “The predictions like “I will go swimming by Arbitrary Date” are the biggest problem with this website, above all the bugs and missing features.” on 2012-01-27
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2012-01-29
• PseudonymousUser said “Perhaps we should be able to ‘follow’ other users’ personal predictions.” on 2012-01-30
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-09.