Jaeggi 2008 (DNB transfer to Gf) will be formally retracted within 5 years

Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-27.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-01-27
• gwern said “original: https://groups.google.com/group/brain-training/msg/ada4477f556f217b” on 2012-01-27
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-10
• gwern said “nope. Jaeggi and associates continue to stand by DNB increasing intelligence and claim non-replications are due to moderators…” on 2017-01-27
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-27.