HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.

• Anubhav estimated 95% on 2012-01-28
• Anubhav said “http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/25/Harry_Potter_and_the_Methods_of_Rationality A long chain of conjunctive reasoning. In a chapter called “hold off on proposing solutions”, no less. ” on 2012-01-28
• HonoreDB estimated 30% on 2012-01-29
• Grognor said “exactly define “deeply flawed” or I’m not touching this.” on 2012-01-29
• Anubhav said “For instance: Atlantis isn’t the source of magic, or the Magic gene isn’t the Atlantean genetic marker, or the spell incantations were not created by the Atlanteans…” on 2012-01-30
• JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2012-01-30
• smijer estimated 1% and said “Why marked known already? Haven’t reached the denoument of said flaw or end of book yet?” on 2012-02-01
• gwern said “it isn’t marked known…?” on 2012-02-02
• ahartell estimated 70% on 2012-02-03
• Anubhav said “HonoreDB, what do you know that we don’t? ” on 2012-02-04
• HonoreDB said “Nothing. It just seems vague enough that there’s plenty of room for Surprising Revelations that don’t deeply contradict Harry’s conjecture.” on 2012-02-04
• kallman estimated 35% and said “Even if “Atlantis” turns out to not be the thing, does it even matter? Clearly access to magic is at least partly hereditary, so the key part of the assumption is true.” on 2012-02-04
• Grognor estimated 39% on 2012-02-08
• Anubhav said “kallman: For this prediction, yes it does.” on 2012-02-08
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “HPMOR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect.” on 2012-04-09
• LauralH estimated 5% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 50% on 2012-04-19
• player_03 estimated 50% on 2014-04-26
• qznc estimated 40% on 2014-07-14
• PlacidPlatypus said “If it’s never conclusively resolved, is that a false prediction?” on 2016-01-01
• PlacidPlatypus said “I’m going to say that “never revealed to be flawed” is enough to mark this wrong since leaving it lying around is bugging me.” on 2016-03-09
• PlacidPlatypus   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-03-09.