Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01

  • Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-02-01
  • Anubhav said “(Measured by natural language communication as a percentage of total communication among sentient beings. Prediction is true if it’s < ~5%. ‘Natural language’ is anything we’d recognise as a natural language today.)on 2012-02-01
  • Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2112-02-01” and changed their prediction from “Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens.)” on 2012-02-01
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Does reading count as “communication”?on 2012-02-01
  • Anubhav said “Yes.on 2012-02-01
  • faws said “5% by what measure? Instances of communication (“conversations” and equivalents?), share of bandwidth used for communication, share of time? How are multi-channel communications (video-chat etc) scored? on 2012-02-01
  • Anubhav said “Bandwidth. If video chats involve natural language, the entire bandwidth of the video chat counts as natural language bandwidth.on 2012-02-01
  • faws said “Does communication between different instances of the same AI count? Between different levels of a hierarchically organized AI? on 2012-02-01
  • Anubhav said “UGH, didn’t think of “sentient beings” as a source of vagueness. I’ll hold off on proposing operationalisations for this one. on 2012-02-01
  • gwern estimated 10% on 2012-02-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-02-01
  • seifip estimated 2% on 2013-04-14
  • themusicgod1 said “kinda hard to judge this claim, then thoughon 2016-10-10
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-10
  • pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-11-25
  • Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-11-26
  • pranomostro estimated 25% on 2018-12-15
  • pranomostro estimated 30% on 2018-12-15

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