Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.)

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01

• Anubhav estimated 20% on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “(Measured by natural language communication as a percentage of total communication among sentient beings. Prediction is true if it’s < ~5%. ‘Natural language’ is anything we’d recognise as a natural language today.)” on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2112-02-01” and changed their prediction from “Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens.)” on 2012-02-01
• Jayson Virissimo said “Does reading count as “communication”?” on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “Yes.” on 2012-02-01
• faws said “5% by what measure? Instances of communication (“conversations” and equivalents?), share of bandwidth used for communication, share of time? How are multi-channel communications (video-chat etc) scored? ” on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “Bandwidth. If video chats involve natural language, the entire bandwidth of the video chat counts as natural language bandwidth.” on 2012-02-01
• faws said “Does communication between different instances of the same AI count? Between different levels of a hierarchically organized AI? ” on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “UGH, didn’t think of “sentient beings” as a source of vagueness. I’ll hold off on proposing operationalisations for this one. ” on 2012-02-01
• gwern estimated 10% on 2012-02-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-02-01
• seifip estimated 2% on 2013-04-14
• themusicgod1 said “kinda hard to judge this claim, then though” on 2016-10-10
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 40% on 2018-11-25
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-11-26
• pranomostro estimated 25% on 2018-12-15
• pranomostro estimated 30% on 2018-12-15