2050: Less than 5% of the global population lives in sovereign nation-states.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01

• Anubhav estimated 40% on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “City-states/global entities don’t count as nation-states.” on 2012-02-01
• faws said “Define sovereign nation state. Do EU members qualify, does the EU qualify, could there be a state of affairs where neither the EU nor the member states qualify? ” on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “EU doesn’t, (That’s what I meant by ‘global entities’.) EU member states are currently borderline AFAIK. (Court of Justice is supreme appellate, but EU Parliament’s decisions aren’t binding on members, right?)” on 2012-02-01
• faws said “EU members are obligated to implement EU legislation as national law, but the EU Parliament is the least important of the three institutions (+commission, council) involved. In many areas an unanimous decision by the member states is required.” on 2012-02-01
• faws estimated 12% and said “That said the bulk of the probability I’d assign would be for a post singularity singleton with surviving humans. ” on 2012-02-01
• gwern estimated 20% on 2012-02-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-02-01
• Anubhav said “Come to think of it, classifying India and China as nation states but not the EU sounds inconsistent. Withdrawing this.” on 2012-02-02
• Anubhav withdrew the prediction on 2012-02-02
• Anubhav said “Better operationalisation here: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/5611” on 2012-02-02