My grandmother will die this year.

Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.

• wallowinmaya estimated 10% on 2012-02-02
• gwern said “what do the actuarial tables say as a base-rate? (you may or may not be surprised)” on 2012-02-02
• wallowinmaya said “13%. But the mother of my grandmother died at age 98. And there are only 11 months left. ” on 2012-02-03
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2012-02-03
• wallowinmaya   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-03.