HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.

• Anubhav estimated 10% on 2012-02-03
• Anubhav said “Prompted by: http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/9on/hugo_awards_hpmor_part_2/ It’s an awesome fic, but baseline probability is very low. ” on 2012-02-03
• gwern said “so any Hugo, such as the podcast, wins, I take it.” on 2012-02-03
• Anubhav said “Yes. Prediction needs clarification.” on 2012-02-04
• Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2017-01-01” and changed their prediction from “Methods of Rationality wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016.” on 2012-02-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 15% on 2012-02-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2012-02-05
• gwern estimated 1% on 2012-04-04
• Anubhav changed their prediction from “Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016.” on 2012-04-09
• lavalamp estimated 3% on 2012-04-10
• quicklystarfish estimated 40% on 2012-04-10
• LauralH estimated 5% on 2012-04-11
• Ken estimated 1% on 2012-04-11
• PlacidPlatypus estimated 4% on 2012-04-19
• Oscar_Cunningham estimated 40% on 2012-04-20
• themusicgod1 estimated 3% on 2016-10-10
• Osuniev said “Unless I’m wrong this did not happen” on 2016-11-21
• Osuniev   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-11-21.