USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China.

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01

• Anubhav estimated 70% on 2012-02-04
• Anubhav changed the deadline from “on 2030-01-01” and changed their prediction from “USA will collapse before China.” on 2012-02-04
• Anubhav said “By ‘collapse’, I mean ‘political collapse’ (revolution/mass secessions). Prediction short-circuits when either of these countries collapses.” on 2012-02-04
• gwern estimated 35% and said “china looks a heck of a lot more fragile than the us – the us isn’t surpressing thousands of demonstrations and ‘incidents’ a year” on 2012-02-04
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2012-02-04
• RobertLumley estimated 40% on 2012-02-04
• JoshuaZ said “How will this be judged if neither collapses before that point? ” on 2012-02-04
• Anubhav said “Joshua: Deadline keeps getting extended until one of them collapses.” on 2012-02-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2012-02-06
• Anubhav estimated 50% and said “I couldn’t remember why I’d placed the high estimate, so I looked over the stuff I’d read 4 days ago. Found this: http://bit.ly/wunBEP Looks like I outsourced reasoning to outrage and cached thoughts. ” on 2012-02-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-02-08
• ahartell estimated 30% on 2012-02-09
• antsan estimated 25% on 2012-02-21
• najdorf estimated 49% on 2013-02-06
• Tuxedage estimated 75% on 2013-02-07
• seifip estimated 10% on 2013-04-14
• btrettel estimated 30% on 2015-07-26
• themusicgod1 estimated 42% on 2016-04-15
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-15
• Baeboo estimated 35% on 2018-12-15
• najdorf estimated 99% on 2020-09-04