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Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.

  • gwern estimated 80% on 2012-02-04
  • gwern said “http://imgur.com/fJRkL I don’t think he photoshopped it, so… dagnabbiton 2012-02-04
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-04.