Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 2% on 2012-02-05
• gwern estimated 4% and said “hah, yeah, that’s not happening” on 2012-02-05
• ahartell estimated 5% on 2012-02-06
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2012-02-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2012-02-06
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% on 2012-02-17
• RandomThinker estimated 2% on 2012-03-06
• PseudonymousUser said “yeah, not happening” on 2012-09-21
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-09-21.