My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.

• gwern estimated 5% on 2012-02-06
• gwern said “background: 80×150mg, paid for tracking, shipper somewhere UK-ish, arrived in 3-4 weeks last time IIRC” on 2012-02-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-11.