My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks

Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.

• gwern estimated 35% on 2012-02-06
• gwern said “arrived an hour ago. talk about cutting it close!” on 2012-02-17
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-17.