Second Falklands War before 2035

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 22% on 2012-02-07
• gwern estimated 15% and said “war is generally acknowledged as a wasteful mistake in both countries, I think” on 2012-02-07
• JoshuaZ said “Yes, but there’s still a fair bit of tension. See e.g. http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/feb/07/falkland-islands-argentina-announcement-malvinas?newsfeed=true” on 2012-02-07
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2012-02-08
• Leo estimated 20% on 2012-02-14
• themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-10
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-15
• n99 estimated 8% on 2022-10-28