GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.

  • gwern estimated 40% on 2012-02-07
  • Leo estimated 15% on 2012-02-08
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 25% and said “I’d be quite surprised.on 2012-02-15
  • Laurent Bossavit estimated 1% and said “She’s collected the requisite number of signatures.on 2012-03-14
  • Leo estimated 0% on 2012-03-30
  • gwern said “still in, WP sayson 2012-04-10
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-10.

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