GJP: #1082 Will William Ruto cease to be a candidate for President of Kenya before 10 April 2012?

Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-14.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2012-02-07
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-14.