Pill was modafinil.

Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-12.

• Lemmih estimated 50% on 2012-02-11
• Lemmih said “My prior is 50/50. Will judge on mood this evening.” on 2012-02-11
• Lemmih estimated 80% and said “P(modafinil) = 0.5; P(mood|~modafinil) = .1; P(mood|modafinil) = .4; P(mood) = P(mood|modafinil) + P(mood|~modafinil) = .5; P(modafinil|mood) = P(mood|modafinil) / P(mood) = 4/5” on 2012-02-11
• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-02-11
• Lemmih   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-12.