There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system.
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
- anonym estimated 8% on 2009-10-17
- ChristianKl estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
- jasticE estimated 1% on 2009-10-17
- Larks estimated 99% on 2009-10-17
- anonym changed their prediction from “There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016.” on 2009-10-17
- anonym estimated 4% on 2009-10-17
- othercriteria estimated 10% on 2009-10-17
- PotatoDumplings estimated 0% on 2009-10-17
- freyley estimated 5% on 2009-10-18
- Vladimir_Golovin judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-18.
- Vladimir_Golovin judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-18.
- Vladimir_Golovin judged this prediction wrong on 2009-10-18.
- Vladimir_Golovin judged this prediction unknown on 2009-10-18.
- Vladimir_Golovin said “(Sorry for multiple edits — I’m trying to figure out how this thing works.)” on 2009-10-18
- NieAlane estimated 5% on 2009-10-18
- anonym said “@Vladimir_Golovin: FYI: to enter a probability estimate, you click the “My 2 cents” button, not a judgement button.” on 2009-10-18
- mjgeddes estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
- Jack estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
- VoiceOfAuthority estimated 1% on 2009-10-19
- jes5199 estimated 10% on 2009-10-19
- taiyo estimated 1% on 2009-10-20
- Chance estimated 1% on 2009-10-20
- alpha-mouse estimated 5% and said “why are you all so sure?” on 2009-10-22
- alpha-mouse said “oh. I didn’t notice ‘against’ word, sorry.” on 2009-10-22
- faws estimated 3% on 2009-10-22
- im estimated 1% on 2009-11-02
- Maksym Taran estimated 5% on 2009-11-03
- lispozord estimated 12% on 2009-11-09
- NineteenHalves estimated 5% on 2009-11-12
- skaye judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-12.
- skaye judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-12.
- skaye estimated 2% on 2009-11-12
- evtujo judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-16.
- Jack judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
- ledflyd judged this prediction wrong on 2009-11-16.
- ledflyd judged this prediction unknown on 2009-11-16.
- ledflyd estimated 5% and said “very doubtful” on 2009-11-16
- gwern estimated 2% on 2010-09-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 5% on 2010-09-29
- Larks estimated 3% on 2010-09-29
- gimpf estimated 1% on 2010-12-12
- JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “Thinking about this more makes it seem less likely than I previously estimated. ” on 2011-07-02
- Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-12
- Emanuel Rylke estimated 1% on 2012-04-29
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% on 2015-12-31
- Raahul_Kumar judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.