Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons

Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.

• modulus estimated 75% on 2012-02-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2012-02-11
• smijer estimated 91% on 2012-02-12
• gwern said “defined how? would a ritualistic declaration ‘our nuclear program is peaceful and not for development of bombs’ falsify this prediction?” on 2012-02-12
• modulus   judged this prediction right on 2012-02-15.
• modulus said “I think the intent of the prediction was fairly clear: that the statement would not unveil development of weapons.It didn’t.” on 2012-02-15