There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012.

Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.

• anonym estimated 4% on 2009-10-17
• Arenamontanus estimated 2% on 2009-10-19
• dshiller estimated 1% on 2009-10-20
• gzero estimated 2% on 2009-11-07
• gwern estimated 2% on 2010-10-19
• faul_sname estimated 2% and said “That would have to be quite an earthquake, the last >=7.0 in the area resulted in 2 deaths.” on 2011-07-01
• Konkvistador estimated 99% on 2011-07-21
• PseudonymousUser estimated 1% and said “Konkvistador, did you mean 99% against?” on 2011-09-23
• PseudonymousUser said “If not, I worry ;)” on 2011-09-23
• army1987 estimated 0% on 2011-10-03
• army1987 estimated 1% and said “one percent per bimester = average of one every 8 years… even that is too much, but the site won’t let me enter decimals” on 2011-10-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.