Night 42: pill was Vitamin D

Created by gwern on 2012-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.

  • gwern estimated 70% on 2012-02-13
  • gwern said “only 84ZQ; had to get up early to drive someone somewhere, which I guess damages ZQ more than it feels likeon 2012-02-13
  • gwern estimated 30% on 2012-02-13
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-13.
  • gwern said “the final tally and analysis: 2012-02-14

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