Seth Roberts will link to http://www.gwern.net/Zeo#vitamin-d within the week.

Created by gwern on 2012-02-14; known on 2012-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-23.

• gwern estimated 65% on 2012-02-14
• gwern said “normally Id say >90% since he was so interested in vitamin d & sleep, and my experiment is so much more awesome than all his previous material, except I sent him the results early yesterday, he replied, and has posted stuff, and nothing” on 2012-02-14
• gwern said “nope – only a commenter linked to it. perplexing.” on 2012-02-23
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-23.